Fearless Forecast - 21 Shoots for 20 Million

I think we'll have a new number one movie this week, and surprisingly enough, I think it will be a movie with almost no bankability.

Unless Horton Hears a Who manages a better-than-expected crowd, look for 21 to wear the crown this weekend, despite being about gambling - never a big hitter at the box office - and despite having Kevin Spacey as its most dependable star. It would be a huge feather in the young career cap for Jim Sturgess should that happen; there's lots of talk about this kid and a number one movie never hurts.

Of course, if 21 stumbles, which given the way this year has gone is possible, then, of all horrific outcomes, Superhero Movie might be number one. There will clearly be congestion among the top three films, but after you reach number five it'll resemble a graveyard of movies hoping to make even $5 million this weekend.

Here's the way we see the top five:

1 - 21 ($17.5 million)
2 - Horton Hears a Who ($16 million)
3 - Superhero Movie ($14.5 million)
4 - Meet the Browns ($9 million)
5 - Stop Loss ($5.5 million)

It's somewhat likely that Drillbit Taylor might stick around the top five another week, but I see that one careening into the bushes instead. I don't think it will get any marketing support at this point, especially with the name Judd Apatow back in commercials for Forgetting Sarah Marshall, which has much better prospects.

Yep, looking at the landscape, there will be an awful lot of use of the phrase "by default" when discussing this weekend's box office.